Kelseyville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

698
FXUS66 KEKA 012233
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
233 PM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

KEY MESSAGES...

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions into Monday.

* Another round of light rain around Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting around
  November 10th.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier conditions continue Monday before
another weak cold front with light rain crosses the area around
Tuesday. COnditions will then remain mild and mostly dry through the
end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier air will quickly built across the area today
with clear skies allowing interior locations to sea highs near 70.
Clear skies and dry air overnight will likely bring a return to
frost at least for some interior locations, though dewpoints at the
coast remain to high for widespread frost closer to shore. High
pressure briefly building into Monday will allow some interior highs
to return near 70 for at least one more afternoon.

There is high confidence that a modest cutoff low and cold front
will quickly cross the area around early Tuesday. This low shows
uncertainty regarding rainfall. Potential is generally higher than
the last system but remains low in absolute terms. Most likely
rainfall is currently 0.05 to 0.15 inches pretty evenly spread
across the area. NBM shows only a 15% chance of any location over
0.25 inches and a 40% chance of little more than drizzle. Moderate
south wind is expected along this front with some gusts near 25 mph
most likely.

Behind this system, there is much greater forecast uncertainty
beyond Tuesday. Most (70%) of ensemble members show weak high
pressure through the end of the week with seasonably cool and mostly
dry conditions. Temperatures will gradually increase with peak
temperatures around Saturday. Similarly, a marine layer near shore
becomes more likely as the week goes on. Any potential of rain for
the week beyond just coastal drizzle after Tuesday has now
evaporated. Long range models suggest the next chance for heavier
rainfall is around November 10th with a 50% chance of rainfall over
1.0 inch in that period. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Dry and unstable air moving in behind a cold front has
enabled clear, VFR conditions all day today. Mostly VFR conditions
will continue overnight, though a minority of models (20%) show
some isolated ceilings near shore of 1 kft early Monday morning.
Otherwise, ceilings around 10 kft will gradually build in Monday
but otherwise remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...Some moderate winds have built in the southern waters
today, but only isolated gusts have reached reach 20 kts with short
period seas up to 6 feet. Nearly calm winds return by Monday. A
modest cold front is expected to pass early Tuesday with some
moderate south winds ahead of the front switching northerly behind
the front mid week. With little short period seas in the short term,
the sea state will be controlled by a series of swells. Most notably
a mild 3 foot, mid period swell from the southwest through mid week.
Of larger note, a long period swell will build Monday up to 7 feet
at 18 seconds, bringing a risk of sneaker waves near shore. /JHW


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A very long period northwest swell will begin to
arrive this evening and peak near 7 feet Monday. This will bring an
extreme threat for sneaker waves as winds remain light and other
wave groups remain limited. This swell starts at around 2 ft at 21
secs and builds to around 6 ft at 17 secs by Monday morning. A Beach
Hazard Statement has been issued for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long
period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves.
Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning,
sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid
jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM PST this evening through
     Monday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ455-
     475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png